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Hi Paul,
According the Sept 2009 retail sales report which was released today, "retail sales declined in September by the largest amount this year as car sales plummeted following the end of the government's Cash for Clunkers program." Based upon these findings I'm afraid I have to disagree with your take on the program.
On a separate note, however, I personally believe that the expiring tax credit for first-time homebuyers will have minimal effect on market sales, and to a much lesser extent than Cash for Clunkers. The credit crunch has severely restricted loan origination and has stalled the residential and CMBS markets to an extent that those who are able to qualify for loans can cover debt service payments without the $8k credit. The impacts will likely be seen in orders for household items -- refrigerators, dining room tables, etc -- but not enough to cripple Home Depot and Bob's Furniture (fingers crossed).
Talk care,
Jim
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